东森游戏平台登录网址

智库建议

韩雅娟 | 储能发展前景分析及发展建议
发布日期:2021-07-09 作者:韩雅娟 信息来源:中咨智库 访问次数: 字号:[ ]

ZAILUOSHI“SHUANGTAN”MUBIAODEZHONGYAOBEIJINGXIA,WOGUONENGYUANJIEGOUDIAOZHENGYUXINXINGDIANLIXITONGJIANSHESHIZAIBIXING。SUIZHEYUANWANGHECHUYITIHUASHENDUXIEDIAOHUDONG,LINGHUODENENGYUANDIANLIXITONGXINMOSHIJIANGRIJIANXIANXIAN。ZHEIYIJINCHENGJIANGCUISHENGDALIANGCHUNENGYINGYONGCHANGJINGYUZHUANGPEIXUQIU,CHUNENGJIANGBANYANBUKETIDAIDEGUANJIANJIAOSE。2021NIAN4YUEGUOJIAFAZHANGAIGEWEI、GUOJIANENGYUANJUYINFADE《GUANYUJIAKUAITUIDONGXINXINGCHUNENGFAZHANDEZHIDAOYIJIAN(ZHENGQIUYIJIANGAO)》(YIXIAJIANCHENG《ZHIDAOYIJIAN》)QIANGDIAOCHUNENGSHIZHICHENGXINXINGDIANLIXITONGDEZHONGYAOJISHUHEJICHUZHUANGBEI,DUITUIDONGNENGYUANLVSEZHUANXING、YINGDUIJIDUANSHIJIAN、BAOZHANGNENGYUANANQUAN、CUJINNENGYUANGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN、SHIXIANTANDAFENGTANZHONGHEJUYOUZHONGYAOYIYI。

01国际、国内储能建设规模分析及预测

ZAITANZHONGHEBEIJINGXIA,GUOJIGUONEIQUANWEIJIGOU、ZHENGFUJIGUANHEZHONGYANGQIYEJIEHEDANGQIANSHIJIYUFAZHANYAOQIU,FENFENYUCEHUOTICHUCHUNENGZHUANGJIGUIMODESHIJIANBIAO、LUXIANTU。ZONGTILAIKAN,ZAIGEGUOZHENGFUDALIYINDAOTUIDONGXIA,GUOJIGUONEICHUNENGSHICHANGJIANGGAOSUZENGZHANG。

(一) 国际储能建设规模

QUANQIUCHUNENGZHUANGJIGUIMOWEILAISHINIANJIANGGAOSUZENGZHANG。2018~2020NIANQUANQIUCHUNENGXINZENGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGFENBIEWEI5.5GW、6.3GW、6.5GW,SANNIANNIANJUNFUHEZENGZHANGLVWEI3.5%。GENJUGUOJIKEZAISHENGNENGYUANSHU(IRENA)ZHANWANGBAOGAO《DIANLICHUCUNYUKEZAISHENGNENGYUAN:2030NIANDECHENGBENYUSHICHANG》DEJIBENYUCEQINGJINGZHONGTICHU,DAO2030NIAN,CHOUSHUIXUNENGZHUANGJIJIANGDADAOYUE230GW;LINGJUGUOJINENGYUANSHU(IEA)《2050JINGLINGPAIFANG:QUANQIUNENGYUANLUXIANTU》BAOGAOZHONGYUCE,DIANCHICHUNENGDAO2030NIANZHUANGJIGUIMOJIANGDADAO590GW。2030NIAN,ZAIJINKAOLVCHOUSHUIXUNENGHEDIANCHICHUNENGDEQINGKUANGXIA[1],CHUNENGZONGZHUANGJIGUIMOJIANGDADAOYUE820GW,2020~2030NIANFUHEZENGZHANGLVYUE16%。

图 1 2015-2020年全球储能市场累计装机规模(单位:GW)

DIANCHICHUNENGJIANGCHENGWEICHUNENGXINZENGZHUANGJIDEZHONGYAOLAIYUANHEWEILAICHUNENGDEZHUYAOZHUANGJIZHICHENG。JIEZHI2020NIANDI,QUANQIUCHUNENGYITOUYUNXIANGMULEIJIZHUANGJIGUIMOWEI191GW,QIZHONGCHOUSHUIXUNENGZHUANGJIGUIMOWEI172GW,ZHANBI90%,DIANCHICHUNENGZHUANGJI15GW,CHOUSHUIXUNENGZHANJUJUEDUIZHUDAODIWEI。GENJUIRENAHEIEAYUCEDECHOUSHUIXUNENGHEDIANCHICHUNENGZHUANGJIQINGKUANG,DAO2030NIAN,CHOUSHUIXUNENGZHUANGJIZENGJIAZHI230GW,2020~2030NIANFUHEZENGZHANGLVYUE3%,DIANCHICHUNENGZHUANGJIZENGJIAZHI590GW,2020~2030NIANFUHEZENGZHANGLVYUE44%。JUCITUISUAN,DAO2030NIAN,CHOUSHUIXUNENGZHUANGJIYUDIANCHICHUNENGZHUANGJIBILIYUEWEI1:2.5,DIANCHICHUNENGZHANBICHAOGUO70%,CHENGWEIWEILAICHUNENGZHONGYAOZHICHENGXINGZHUANGJILAIYUAN。

图 2 2020-2030年全球抽水蓄能和电池储能累计装机规模(单位:GW)

(二) 国内储能建设规模

2020NIANWOGUOXINZENGCHUNENGZHUANGJI2.6GW,CHUNENGZONGZHUANGJIGUIMOYUE34GW。GENJUCESASHUJU,2020NIANWOGUOXINZENGCHUNENGZHUANGJI2.6GW,QIZHONGCHOUSHUIXUNENGXINZENGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGWEI1.8GW,ZHANBIWEI69.5%,DIANCHICHUNENGXINZENGZHUANGJIRONGLIANGWEI0.79MW,ZHANBI30.4%。GENJU《ZHONGGUODIANLIXINGYENIANDUFAZHANBAOGAO2021》YUCNESASHUJUTUICE,JIEZHI2020NIANDI,WOGUOCHUNENGZONGZHUANGJIGUIMOYUE34GW,QIZHONGCHOUSHUIXUNENGYUE31GW,DIANCHICHUNENGYUE3GW。

DAO2025NIAN,WOGUOCHUNENGZHUANGJIGUIMOXINZENG60GWYISHANG,YOUWANGDADAO94GW。《ZHIDAOYIJIAN》TICHU,JIHUADAO2025NIAN,XINXINGCHUNENG[2]ZHUANGJIGUIMODA30GWYISHANG。CIWAI,GUOJIADIANWANGTOULUQIZAIYUN、ZAIJIANCHOUSHUIXUNENGZHUANGJIGUIMODADAO62GW,“SHISIWU”QIJIAN,JIANGLIZHENGXINZENGKAIGONG20GWYISHANG;NANFANGDIANWANGTOULU,QIDAO2025NIANJIANGTOUCHAN5GWCHOUSHUIXUNENGDIANZHAN。BAOSHOUGUJI,“LIANGWANG”ZAI“SHISIWU”QIJIANHUOJIANGXINZENG30GWYISHANGCHOUSHUIXUNENGZHUANGJI。“SHISIWU”QIJIAN,WOGUOXINZENGCHOUSHUIXUNENGHEDIANCHICHUNENGZHUANGJIHUOJIANGCHAOGUO60GW。QIZHONG,XINZENGZHUANGJIZHONGYIBANWEIDIANCHICHUNENG、YIBANWEICHOUSHUIXUNENG,DIANCHICHUNENGNIANFUHEZENGZHANGLVYUEWEI58%,CHOUSHUIXUNENGNIANFUHEZENGZHANGLVWEI14%,DIANCHICHUNENGZENGSUJIANGYUANGAOYUCHOUSHUIXUNENG。

02 储能发展面临的挑战

DALIFAZHANCHUNENGYIXINGCHENGLIANGHAODEZHENGFUJIANGONGSHIHEJISHUJICHU,DANRENGMIANLINZHONGZHONGTIAOZHAN。

(一) 建设成本仍高昂,商业模式不清晰

DIANCHICHUNENGSUIRANXIANGJIAOQITACHUNENGERYANJUBEIZONGHEXINGCHENGBENYOUSHI,DANQUANSHENGMINGZHOUQIDUDIANCHENGBENRENGRANPIANGAO,WEIYU0.5~1.5YUAN/kwhZHIJIAN,YUANGAOYUJINRUPINGJIASHIDAIDEFENGGUANGDIANJIA。JUZHUANJIAYUCE,ZAIMUQIANTIZHIJIZHIXIA,CHUNENGDUDIANCHENGBENXUYAOXIAJIANGDAO0.1~0.3YUAN,XINGYENEIDUOSHUQIYECAINENGJUBEIZUGOUDECHENGDANNENGLI,FANGKEXINGCHENGZAIQUANGUODAMIANJIPUKAIDESHANGYEMOSHI。

(二)政策形势不明朗,资本观望氛围浓

CHUNENGDUICHUANTONGDIANLIXITONGERYANSHIXINSHENGSHIWU,XIANGGUANBUWEIGUANYUCHUNENGWEILAIKEXUEHELIDEJIANGUANMOSHISHANGWEIDACHENGGONGSHI。DAOZHILEXINGYEFAZHANZAIXIAOLVKAOLIANGYUANQUANKAOLVJIANPAIHUAI、ZAIZHENGFUZHUDAOYUSHICHANGZIZHUJIANPAIHUAI,CHUANDAOZHIZIBENSHICHANGZETIXIANWEITOUZIDEHULENGHURE,BULIYUXINGCHENGWENDINGDEYUQIHEZENGLIANGSHIZIBENDAORU。

(三) 标准体系未建立,安全运营存隐患

MUQIANDUISHIYINGWOGUOCHUNENGCHANYEFAZHANDEANQUANCELVESHANGWEIXINGCHENGDINGCENGGONGSHI,DIANCHICHUNENGDEANQUANBIAOZHUNRENGWEIJIANLI,TEBIESHIGUANCHUANCHUNENGCHANPINSHEJI、YANFA、SHENGCHAN、JICHENGDENGGEGELIUCHENGDEXITONGANQUANTIXISHANGWEIXINGCHENG,DAOZHICHUNENGCHANPINANQUANXINGYUKEKAOXINGJIANCEYUYANZHENGZHIHOUCHANYEFAZHAN,BUFENDIQUSHENZHIFASHENGYANZHONGDECHUNENGDIANZHANQIHUOBAOZHASHIGU,YINFAGONGZHONGKONGHUANG。

(四) 公众吸引力度小,用户储能开发慢

SHOUDIANDONGZIXINGCHEHEXINNENGYUANQICHEZIRANBAOZHADENGFUMIANXIAOXIYINGXIANG,GERENYONGHUDUIJIAYONGZHONGXIAOXINGDIANCHICHUNENGCHANPINANQUANXINGCUNZAIDANYOU;TONGSHI,FENGGUDIANJIATEBIESHIMINDIANFENGGUDIANJIADEDANXINGBUZU,WUFADUIDAZHONGYONGHUXINGCHENGKEYUQISHOUYILADONG。DAOZHILEWOGUOMIANXIANGDAZHONGDEYONGHUCECHUNENGJIANSHEJIHUKONGBAI,YUBUFENFADAGUOJIADECHAJUBUDUANLADA。

03 促进储能发展的若干建设

WEIGENGHAODIFAHUIZHENGFUYINDAOXINGZUOYONG、TIGAOGESHICHANGZHUTIDEJIJIXING,TONGSHIYOUHUACHUNENGBUJU、JIANGDIQUANSHEHUIJIANSHECHENGBEN,CUJINWOGUOCHUNENGJIANKANGFAZHAN,TICHUYIXIAJIANYI。

(一)积极发展V2G技术,加快储能与电动汽车的融合发展。

2021、2025NIANWOGUODIANDONGQICHEXIAOLIANGJIANGFENBIECHAOGUO100WANLIANG、500WANLIANG,QIEZHANGQIRENGJIANGGAOSUZENGZHANG。ANMEILIANGCHE10kW/50kWhDERONGLIANGYUCE,2021、2025NIANFENBIEXINZENG10GW、50GWDEQIANZAI“CHUNENG”ZHUANGJI。ANXIANXINGTUISUAN,2021~2025WUNIANJIANGLEIJIXINZENG150GWDONGLIDIANCHIRONGLIANG,RUO20%DEDIANDONGQICHECANYUDIANWANGHUDONGCHUNENG,KEDAILAI30GWDEYIDONGCHUNENGZHUANGJIZIYUAN,YU《ZHIDAOYIJIAN》ZHONG“SHISIWU”XINXINGCHUNENGZHUANGJIZHENGTIMUBIAOZHIXIANGDANG。CIWAI,CHELIANGYECHONGZHOUYONG、DIANWANGYEGUZHOUFENG,DIANDONGQICHEDESHIYONGSHIJIANTEXINGYUDIANWANGFENGGUTEXINGKEYOUXIAODAPEI,WEITONGGUOV2GJISHUFAZHANCHELIANGCHUNENGTIGONGLELIANGHAODEXIANTIANJICHU。JIANYISHENWALIYONGDIANDONGQICHERONGLIANGZIYUAN,TONGGUOFAZHANXUNIDIANCHANGJISHUJUHEFENSANDEDONGLIDIANCHICHUNENGZIYUAN、TIGAOCHONGFANGDIANGUOCHENGDEDIANWANGYOUHAOXING,CUJINCHUNENGYUDIANDONGQICHERONGHEFAZHAN,YIQINGZICHANYUNYINGMOSHIJIANGDIQUANSHEHUIZONGZICHANTOURU;TONGSHI,YUJI2025NIANTUIYIDIANCHIJIANGDADAO93YIWASHI,MEINIANTUIYIDIANCHISHULIANGZENGZHANGJIANGCHAOGUO100WANLIANGJI。YOUCIJIANGDAILAIJUDADETICILIYONGQIANZAISHICHANGJIAZHI,YINGQIANZHANXINGGUANZHUTUIYIDONGLIDIANCHITICILIYONGZIYUANYIJIXIANGGUANJISHUNANTI,TONGGUOTUIYIDIANCHIZIYUAN“ZAILIYONG”YANHUANXINZENGDIANCHIZHIZAOTOUZI、JIANGDISHENGCHANZHONGDETANPAI。

(二)发展电动汽车充/换电站与储能电站“共建模式”,通过“一站多能”“荷储一体”优化商业模式。

一方面,电动汽车换电站拥有大量的换电电池容量,每天产生大量的电力交易规模。换电站可利用电网峰谷时段有选择地进行充电并在提供换电服务时售出,实质上发挥了储能电站的职能。在此基础上可进一步拓宽其商业模式,即在换电站配置一定的储能容量,用电低谷低价时段从电网购电,存储到待换动力电池和储能电池中,用电高峰高价时从储能电池和备用动力电池中反向售电给电网,赚取峰谷价差。另一方面,在现有充电站基础上加配储能设施,在电价低谷时充电,在充电高峰期释放存储的电力,既能够缓解电动汽车充电时(特别是大量电动汽车快速充电时)对配电网的冲击,也能够通过赚取峰谷价差提升自身盈利水平,实现经济效益与绿色效益的统一。

(三)优化储能选址布局,通过分散布置、集中控制方式降低建设规模,减低综合成本。

当前部分省市推出了风光电站配建储能的政策要求,可再生能源和储能共址配套建设,例如目前我国多地要求可再生能源项目配置5%~20%的储能,不一定是储能部署的最佳选择,建议政府和电力企业不断改进储能选址规划机制。探索在电网侧布局大型储能站点同时服务多个新能源电场的模式,运用5G、物联网、云计算等技术实现集中控制、设备共用,通过“共享模式”提高储能电站间、储能电站与风光电场的协同性,减少储能建设规模要求,降低全社会成本。

(四) 给予储能更加独立的地位,建立健全储能友好型政策法规。

欧洲清洁能源一揽子计划已将储能定义为独立于发电、输电或负载的实体,给予了针对性的促进政策。建议政府将储能作为实体对象纳入电力系统整体建设规划中,形成以发展为牵引、以问题为导向的快速决策机制,在完善碳税交易、弹性电价、容量市场、电力期货市场、辅助服务市场、输配电投资建设制度中,给予储能明确定位与政策倾斜。通过制度设计形成由政府定价向市场竞价的转变,保障社会资本投入,借助资本投入提升发展质量、加快发展速度。此外,应大力克服部门利益、本位主义,完善政府部门间及不同地方政府间相互支持、密切配合、信息共享的联动机制,形成工作合力,出台科学系统、具体有效的管理办法以协同推动有关政策的落地实施,尽量避免“政出多门”及政策法规要求相互重复、冲突的现象。

(五)提高公众参与意愿,鼓励个人用户安装,探索储能与乡村振兴有机融合。

与部分发达国家相比,我国家庭储能安装数量较少。建议提升公众对储能的认知,鼓励更多的家庭购买储能装置,在形成一定用户规模基础上,深度挖掘用户侧储能在电力系统中的重要作用。鉴于我国城市人口高度密集的现状,建议出台“储能下乡”政策将储能纳入“乡村振兴”与“美丽中国”建设中,充分利用村镇地区丰富的土地与可再生资源优势,在乡镇区域探索储能与微电网融合发展模式。

(六)加快建立并完善储能安全标准与应急规范,提高储能应用的安全水平。

应避免缺乏储能系统标准而造成的无序发展状况,避免单一安全事故引起的社会性恐慌与资本寒冬。建议加快建立健全储能系统分级分类标准、测试标准、安装标准、隐患定位标准、系统老化异常检测标准、险情评估模型、相应的消防策略与应急规范以及安全事件的问责追溯与惩罚机制,确保储能系统的长期健康发展。





 
var _hmt = _hmt || []; (function() { var hm = document.createElement("script"); hm.src = "https://hm.baidu.com/hm.js?78ebdacae9da971faf025645ab77d367"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(hm, s); })();