东森游戏平台登录网址

智库建议

谢明华 丁丹 | 当前全球主要经济体货币政策走向及对策
发布日期:2021-07-12 作者:谢明华 丁丹 信息来源:中咨智库 访问次数: 字号:[ ]

JINNIANLAI,WEIYINGDUIQUANQIUYIQINGMANYANDUIJINGJICHANSHENGDECHIXUXINGYINGXIANG,GEGUOPUBIANSHISHILEKUANSONGDEHUOBIZHENGCE。SUIZHEYIQINGFANGKONGXINGSHIXIANGHAO,QUANQIUJINGJIZHUJIANFUSU,YIXIEZHUYAOJINGJITILUXUKAISHISHOUJINHUOBIZHENGCE。JINQI,MEILIANCHUYIXIHUIYIJIANGJIAXIYUQISHIJIANCONG2024NIANTIQIANDAO2023NIAN,SHIFANGLETIQIANJIESHUKUANSONGHUOBIZHENGCEDEXINHAO。YINGJINGTIZHUYAOJINGJITIDIAOZHENGHUOBIZHENGCEDAOXIANGKENENGYINFADEGUOJIJINRONGSHICHANGBODONG、XINXINGJINGJITIZHAIWUWEIJI、RENMINBIBIANZHIDENGDUIWOGUOZAOCHENGDECHONGJI。

一、通胀预期、经济复苏、资产泡沫是本次美联储释放加息信号的三大动因

01 美联储加息预期引发全球广泛关注

2021NIAN6YUE17RI,MEILIANCHUGONGKAISHICHANGWEIYUANHUI(FOMC)FABIAOSHENGMING,XUANBUJIANGLIANBANGJIJINLILVWEICHIZAI0-0.25%ZHIJIAN,SUIRANWEICHIJIZHUNLILVBUBIAN,DANJIANGCHAOEZHUNBEIJINLILVCONG0.1%SHANGDIAOZHI0.15%,GEYENIHUIGOULILVCONG0.00%SHANGDIAOZHI0.05%,BINGDAFUDUDIAOGAOLEJINNIANDETONGZHANGYUQI,RENWEIJINNIANZHENGTITONGZHANGLVJIANGDADAO3.4%,ERCIQIANYUQIDETONGZHANGLVWEI2.4%。13MINGMEILIANCHUGUANYUANYUJI2023NIANNIANDIQIANJIANGJIAXI,3YUEFENSHIYUJIJIAXIDEJINYOU7REN。GENJUMEILIANCHUDEJIZHUNLILVDIANZHENTUXIANSHI,DAO2023NIANDIQIANKENENGHUIJIAXILIANGCI,MEILIANCHUFABUSHENGMINGHOU,DANGZHOUMEIGUHEDAZONGSHANGPINJUNCHUXIANBUTONGFUDUDEXIADIE,QIZHONGHUANGJINDENGGUIJINSHUDEDIEFUYOUDA,BOJIGUONEIAGU,DANDUANQISHICHANGQINGXUJIAOKUAIDEDAOHUIFU。

02 美联储释放加息信号背后有三方面动因

YISHITONGZHANGYUANCHAOYUQI。JINNIANYILAI,MEIGUOTONGZHANGYALIKAISHIMINGXIANTAISHENG,DUOXIANGWUJIAZHIBIAOPANSHENGZHILISHIGAOWEI,TONGZHANGZHIBIAO3YUEFENWEI2.6%、4YUEFENWEI4.2%、5YUEFENSHANGSHENGZHI5.0%,JIAOSHANGCIYIXIHUIYITIGAO2.4GEBAIFENDIAN,XINGCHENGCIDAIWEIJIYILAIDECIGAOFENG(ZUIGAOZHI5.6%)。HUOBIZHENGCEDEMUBIAOYEJIANGZHUANXIANGGUANZHUTONGHUOPENGZHANG,HUOBIZHENGCESHOUJINHEJIANSHAOFAZHAIYEBEITISHANGLEYISHIRICHENG。ERSHIMEIGUOJINGJIZHUJIANHUIFU。2020NIANYIQINGXIAMEILIANCHUDEHUOBIKUANSONGZHENGCESHILINSHIXINGTESHUJIUSHICUOSHI,DANGQIAN,MEIGUOYIQINGZHUBUDEDAOKONGZHI,HONGGUANJINGJIHEJIUYEDEFUSUZHENGJIAKUAIFAZHAN。JINNIANDIYIJIDU,MEIGUOJINGJIZENGSUWEI6.4%,FANDANSUDUKUAIYUYUQI。3YUEFENJUGAOSHENGYUJI,JINNIANDESHIYELVKENENGHUIXIAJIANGDAOJIEJINYIQINGDALIUXINGZHIQIANDESHUIPING。SANSHIZICHANPAOMOHUAXINGSHIYANJUN。KUANSONGDEHUOBIHUANJINGTUIDONGZHUYAOJINRONGJIDAZONGSHANGPINSHICHANGCHENGXIANPUZHANGTAISHI,MEIGUSANDAGUZHILVCHUANGXINGAO,QIZHONGNASIDAKEZONGHEZHISHUJIAOYIQINGDALIUXINGZHIQIANDEFENGZHISHANGZHANG70%。MEIWTIYUANYOUJIAGEBIJIN77MEIYUAN/TONG,JIAO2020NIAN4YUE17.11MEIYUAN/TONGSHANGZHANG350%。5YUEFEN,LIANHEGUOLIANGNONGZUZHISHIPINJIAGEZHISHUTONGBISHANGZHANG39.7%,CHUANGXIA2011NIAN9YUEYILAIDEZUIGAOSHUIPING。ZICHANJIAGESHANGZHANGMINGXIANKUAIYUSHITIJINGJIFUSU,YICHANSHENGPAOMO,CUNZAIYINYOUHEFENGXIAN。

03 美联储真正开启加息周期仍有较长的路要走

ZHANGQIYILAI,MEILIANCHUHUOBIZHENGCEMUBIAOMAODINGTONGZHANGYUJIUYE,2019NIANGENJUGUOHUISHOUQUAN,ZENGJIABAOCHISHIDUDEZHANGQILILVXINMUBIAO。2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIYIHOU,DUICHONGJINRONGFENGXIAN、BAOCHIZHAIQUANSHICHANGPINGWEN、HUANJIEZHENGFUZHAIWUYALIDENGYECHENGWEIHUOBIZHENGCEZHONGYAOMUBIAO,MEILIANCHUZHENGCEFANGXIANGSHOUMEIGUOZHENGFUDEYINGXIANGYUELAIYUEDA。GUER,JIBIANDANGQIANMEILIANCHUSHIFANGLEJIAXIXINHAO,DANYAOZHENZHENGKAIQIJIAXIZHOUQIRENGYOUJIAOZHANGDELUYAOZOU。SHOUXIAN,MEILIANCHUDUIXINGSHIPANDUANRENGSHIFENJINSHEN。MEILIANCHUSHENGMINGMINGQUEBIAOSHIJINGJIQIANJINGMIANLINDEFENGXIANYOUZAI,YAOZHILIYUZAIZHEIGECHONGMANTIAOZHANDESHIQISHIYONGQUANBUGONGJULAIZHICHIMEIGUOJINGJI。QICI,QIANJILUNHUOBIZHENGCEJINSUODUIMEIGUOJINGJIDAJIHENDA,SHENZHISHIXIANRUSHUAITUI,YINCIMEILIANCHUDUIJINSUOHUOBIZHENGCECHISHIFENJINSHENTAIDU。ZUIHOU,MEILIANCHUJIANGDAGAILVPEIHEBAIDENGZHENGFUDEJINGJICIJIJIHUA。BAIDENGSHANGTAIYILAI,ZAIYINGDUIYIQINGCHONGJI、CIJIJINGJIFUSUZHONG,BUDUANJIADAZHENGFUGANYULIDU。PANGDADEGANYUZHENGCEHENDUOXUYAOMEILIANCHUDEHUOBIZHENGCEZHICHI,BAOKUO1.9WANYIMEIYUANDEMEIGUOZHENGJIUJIHUA、2WANYIMEIYUANDEGUOJIAJICHUJIANSHETOUZIJIHUA、1.8WANYIMEIYUANDESHEHUIFULIZHICHUJIHUA。MEIGUO2022CAINIANYUSUANHECAIZHENGCHIZIYUSUANJUNYUANGAOYU2019CAINIANSHUIPING。WEIPEIHEBAIDENGZHENGFUDEJINGJICIJIJIHUA,MEILIANCHUZAIHUOBIZHENGCESHANGBINGCHI“BIANZOUBIANKAN”DETAIDU。

二、新兴经济体及部分发达国家开始加息但全球货币政策走向仍有分歧

01 巴西、俄罗斯等新兴经济体率先加息

YOUYUXINXINGJINGJITIWANGWANGYOUDALIANGYIMEIYUANDENGZHUYAOCHUBEIHUOBIJIJIADEZHAIWU,TAMENGENGGUANZHUXIANGDUITONGZHANGYUQIYINFADEHUILVHEZIBENLIUDONGXINGBODONG,YINCI,XINXINGJINGJITIBIYIXIEFADASHICHANGFANYINGGENGKUAI,LVXIANSHISHILEJIAXI。JINNIAN3YUEYILAI,BAXI、ELUOSI、TUERQIDENGGUOXIANHOUSHOUJINLEHUOBIZHENGCE。TUERQIYANGXINGYU3YUE18RIXUANBUJIAXI200GEJIDIANZHI19%,YUANCHAOSHICHANGYUQI。6YUECHUELUOSIYANGXINGNIANNEIDISANCIJIAXI,JIANGJIZHUNLILVSHANGDIAOLE0.5GEBAIFENDIANZHI5.5%,BINGBIAOSHIWEILAIJIGEYUEKENENGHAIHUIYOUGENGDUODEJIAXIJUCUO。6YUE16RI,BAXIYANGXINGXUANBUJIAXI,SHANGDIAOJIZHUNLILV75GEJIDIANZHI4.25%,ZHEIYESHIBAXIYANGXINGJINNIANDISANCIJIAXI。

02 美联储提出加息预期后部分国家相应收紧货币政策

6YUE17RI,RIBENYANGXINGQIANZHIXINGDONGSHIGONGKAIBIAOSHI,RIBENYANGXINGKENENGHUIJIANGDUANQILILVTIGAODAO0-0.5%ZUOYOU,ZHEIGEBIAOTAIGENMEILIANCHUJIBENYIZHI。6YUE29RI,RIBENYANGXINGXUANBUJIANGGOUMAIJIDUZHAIQUANLAITIDAIZHIQIANDEYUEDUZHAIQUAN,BINGFEN3GEJIEDUANXIADIAO7YUEFENRIBENGUOZHAIGOUMAIPINLV,JINYIBUSHIFANGJIAXIXINHAO。6YUE22RI,WEILEYINGDUIJINGJIKUAISUFUSUZHIJIBUDUANSHANGSHENGDEWUJIAYALI,XIONGYALIYANGXINGJIANGJIZHUNLILVSHANGDIAO30GEJIDIANZHI0.9%。6YUE24RI,MOXIGEYANGXINGCHURENYILIAODIJIANGJIZHUNLILVSHANGDIAOLE25GEBAIFENDIANZHI4.25%,YIYINGDUIZHENGCEZHIDINGZHECIQIANCHENGZHIWEI“ZANSHIXING”DETONGZHANGBIAOSHENG,FANYINGCHUMOXIGEYANGXINGDUIYUTONGZHANGQIANJINGDEDANYOU。HANGUOZHONGYANGYINXINGYEBIAOSHIJIHUASHOUJINHUOBIZHENGCEYIYIZHIKENENGCHUXIANDEZICHANPAOMO,YOUQISHIFANGDICHANPAOMO。NUOWEIYANGXINGBIAOSHIJIANGZAI9YUEJIAXI,JIEKEGONGHEGUOYUJIYEJIANGHENKUAIJIAXI。

03 欧洲、印度央行目前仍表示保持宽松货币政策

OUZHOUYANGXINGWEIBIMIANHUOBICIJIZHENGCETIQIANTUICHUHUIDALUANJINGJIFUSUSHITOU,CONGERXUANZEHULVETONGZHANGSHUIPINGDUANQISHANGXING。OUZHOUZHONGYANGYINXINGZAI6YUE10RIXUANBURENGJUEDINGWEICHIDANGQIANDECHAOKUANSONGHUOBIZHENGCE。JUYOUGUANSHUJUXIANSHI,OUYUANQU5YUETONGZHANGLVWEI2.0%,OUZHOUYANGXINGJIHUAZAIDISANJIDUJIXUBAOCHIGAOYUDIYIJIDUSHUIPINGDEGOUZHAIGUIMO。JINJIGEYUEOUYUANQUTONGZHANGLVYOUSUOSHANGSHENG,ZHUYAOSHIYOUYUDIJISHUXIAOYINGJINENGYUANJIAGESHANGZHANGDENGYINSUYINQI,YUJITONGZHANGSHUIPINGJIANGZAIJINNIANXIABANNIANJINYIBUSHANGSHENG。6YUE4RI,YINDUYANGXINGZAIHUOBIZHENGCEHUIYISHANGXUANBUJIANGJIZHUNHUIGOULILVWEICHIZAI4%DEDISHUIPINGBUBIAN,ZHEISHIYINDUYANGXINGLIANXUDILIUCIHUIYIJIANGJIEDAICHENGBENWEICHIZAICHUANGJILUDIDIAN。6YUE12RI,YINDUYANGXINGXUANBUJIANGCHIXUXIANGGUONEISHICHANGZHURULIUDONGXING,JIADAGOUMAIZHENGFUZHAIQUANDEGUIMO,YITUIDONGGUONEIJINGJIFAZHAN。

三、我国需关注并应对全球货币政策调整引发的风险

01 防范国际热钱快进快出造成国内市场波动

ZAIQUANQIUHUOBIKUANSONGBEIJINGXIA,ZHUYAOFADAGUOJIASHIXINGLIANGHUAKUANSONGZHENGCE,DICHENGBENDEZIJINDAOZHIDALIANGDUANQIWAIZIJINRUWOGUOZHONGZHANGQISHICHANGCHAODUANXIAN,REQIANDEKUAIJINKUAICHUJIYIYINQIJINRONGZICHANJIAGEDAFUBODONG。WOGUOGUOJISHOUZHIPINGHENGBIAOZHONG,ZHANGQICUNZAIYIDINGGUIMODEWUCHAHEYILOUXIANG,ZHEIYIDINGCHENGDUSHANGFANYINGLECUNZAIJIAODAGUIMODEZIJINWAILIU,ZHUYAOTUJINGBAOKUO“DIXIAQIANZHUANG”、YIFUWUHEJISHUMAOYIWEIYANHUDEZIJINZHIFU、XUZENGHAIWAIBINGGOUZICHAN、KUAJINGRONGTONGANPAIDENG。YINGQUANMIANSHULIKENENGZIBENWAILIUDETONGDAO,ZUOHAODUIZHENGQUANTONG、ZHAIQUANTONG、HUGANGTONG、SHENGANGTONGDENGQUDAODEJINRONGJIANGUAN,FANGFANZIJINDEDAGUIMOKUAJINGLIUDONG。

02 关注新兴经济体债务危机对我国家权益产生的影响

IMFBIAOSHI,CHIXUDEYIQINGHUIJIJINRONGSHICHANGDAILAIXINDEYALI,KENENGHUISHINEIXIEYIJINGYONGYOUJUEJINGCHANGZHANGHUCHIZI、GAOEWAIBIZHAIWU、HUOCHUBEIBUZUDEGUOJIAXIANRUWEIJI。YOUQISHIDUIYURONGYIFASHENGZIBENTURANWAILIUDEXINXINGJINGJITI,YIQINGZENGJIALEZHEIXIEGUOJIAFASHENGWAIBUZHAIWUWEIJIDEFENGXIAN。MUQIAN,FEIZHOUHENDUOGUOJIADOUCHUXIANLEHAIKUANNANXIANXIANG,JINYOUJIANA、KETEDIWAHEBOCIWANASANGEGUOJIASHANGWEIDADAORONGZISHANGXIAN。RUOXINXINGJINGJITIDALIANGXIANRUZHAIWUWEIJI,NANYIANQICHANGHAIDAIKUAN,JIANGSUNHAIWOZHAIQUANRENLIYI。JIANYIYOUGUANJIGOUKEZAITIAOJIANYUNXUDEQINGKUANGXIASHIDANGJIANGDIDAIKUANLILVBINGYANZHANGHAIKUANQIXIAN,JIYU“YIDAIYILU”GUOJIAHEZHONGZHAIQIONGGUOGENGDIDELILVHEGENGZHANGDEHAIKUANQIXIAN,YIJIANQINGSHOUYUANGUOHAIKUANFUDAN。

03 未雨绸缪积极应对全球货币政策收紧趋势

JINGUANQUANQIUJIAXICHAOSHANGWEIDAOLAI,DANGEGUOFANGHUANGOUZHAISUDUHEXUEJIANGOUZHAIGUIMOYIJINGQIAORANKAIQI,ZAIQUANQIUHUOBIZHENGCEZHUANXIANGDEBEIJINGXIA,YINGTIQIANZUOHAOYINGDUIANPAI,FANGFANTUFAFENGXIAN。YIFANGMIAN,YINGCAIQUJIJIXINGDONGWEIHUHUILVWENDING。WOGUOJINKOUQIYEYINGZUOHAOCHONGFENYINGDUIZHUNBEI,ZAIJIESUAN、JINHUODENGFANGMIANDAHAO“ZUHEQUAN”,JINLIANGBIMIANMEIYUANHUILVSHANGSHENGDAILAIDESUNSHI。JINYIBUJIANQUANSHICHANGHUALILVXINGCHENGHECHUANDAOJIZHI,ZENGQIANGJINRONGSHICHANGDEHUOLIHERENXING,GOUJIANJUYOUSHIYINGXING、JINGZHENGLI、PUHUIXINGDEXIANDAIJINRONGTIXI。LINGYIFANGMIAN,JIYUSHITIJINGJIGENGDUOZHICHI,WENDINGJINGJIFAZHAN。ZHUZHONGZENGQIANGTOUZIZHECHIXUJINGYINGXINXIN,BAOCHILIUDONGXINGHELICHONGYU,BAZIJINYONGDAOSHITIJINGJI。BAOCHISHITIJINGJICHIXUJIANKANGFAZHAN,YOUZHUYUCUSHIWOGUOGENGHAODIYINGDUIQUANQIUJIAXIDAILAIDEFUMIANYINGXIANG。

(ZHIZHIBANJIAN《ZHONGGUOTOUZI》7YUEHAO)




 
var _hmt = _hmt || []; (function() { var hm = document.createElement("script"); hm.src = "https://hm.baidu.com/hm.js?78ebdacae9da971faf025645ab77d367"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(hm, s); })();